Syracuse’s carries with Tylik Hill and without Tylik Hill
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Syracuse was 2.7 carries over with Tylik Hill and 1.7 carries over without Tylik Hill in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 42.1 and 38.0, a difference of 4.1. All 4 home games were with Tylik Hill. All 4 day games were with Tylik Hill. Both nonconference games were with Tylik Hill.
Tylik Hill, running back: 522 rushing yards, 99 carries and 1 reception in 7 games this season, 34% of Syracuse’s carries in those games.
One game without Tylik Hill is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Tylik Hill
+2.7
without Tylik Hill
+1.7
-50510
plain
42.1
38.0
354045
The games
with Tylik Hillwithout Tylik Hill
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs New Hampshire | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs California | L | 35 | 41.8 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 38 | 36.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UConn | W | 47 | 37.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 47 | 36.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Louisville | L | 39 | 43.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 48 | 38.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs SMU | W | 37 | 38.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- New Hampshire has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.