South Carolina’s third-down conversion rate with Christian Clark and without Christian Clark
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Carolina was 7.5 percentage points over with Christian Clark and 1.3 percentage points over without Christian Clark over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 50.1% and 50.0%, a difference of 0.1%. Expected was 6.1 percentage points lower with Christian Clark than without Christian Clark. All 3 away games were with Christian Clark. Both night games were with Christian Clark. All 4 unranked opponents were with Christian Clark.
Christian Clark, running back: 61 rushing yards, 19 carries and 5 receptions in 5 of those 25 games.
One game without Christian Clark is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Christian Clark
+7.5%
without Christian Clark
+1.3%
-20%0%20%40%
plain
50.1%
50.0%
40%60%80%
The games
with Christian Clarkwithout Christian Clark
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 75.0% | 41.4% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Missouri | W | 40.0% | 34.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Wofford | W | 83.3% | — | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Clemson | W | 53.8% | 37.3% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Illinois (neutral) | L | 56.3% | 43.0% | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech (neutral) | W | 33.3% | 40.3% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSouth Carolina State | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsVanderbilt | L | 33.3% | 41.5% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @Missouri | L | 27.3% | 33.5% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 53.3% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ LSU | L | 37.5% | 32.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 20.0% | 32.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | 35.3% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 23.1% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 26.7% | 26.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 54.5% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsClemson | L | 9.1% | 34.9% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 87.5% | 43.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsTTowson | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | L | 33.3% | 50.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Alabama | L | 21.4% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsKentucky | L | 50.0% | 48.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Florida | W | 62.5% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Tennessee | W | 38.5% | 42.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Oklahoma | W | 57.1% | 35.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Towson has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Christian Clark nor without Christian Clark: Christian Clark had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.