South Carolina’s third-down conversion rate with Christian Clark and without Christian Clark
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Carolina was 7.5 percentage points over with Christian Clark and 1.3 percentage points over without Christian Clark in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 50.1% and 50.0%, a difference of 0.1%. Expected was 6.1 percentage points lower with Christian Clark than without Christian Clark. All 3 away games were with Christian Clark. Both night games were with Christian Clark. All 4 unranked opponents were with Christian Clark.
Christian Clark, running back: 61 rushing yards, 19 carries and 5 receptions in 5 games this season.
One game without Christian Clark is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Christian Clark
+7.5%
without Christian Clark
+1.3%
-20%0%20%40%
plain
50.1%
50.0%
40%60%80%
The games
with Christian Clarkwithout Christian Clark
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 87.5% | 43.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsTTowson | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | L | 33.3% | 50.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 21.4% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 50.0% | 48.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Florida | W | 62.5% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Tennessee | W | 38.5% | 42.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | W | 57.1% | 35.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Towson has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.