South Carolina’s points of margin with Dylan Stewart and without Dylan Stewart
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Carolina was 1.2 points under with Dylan Stewart and 7.4 points over without Dylan Stewart over its last 25 games, 18 games against 4. The plain averages are 1.4 and 28.0, a difference of 26.6. All 9 away games were with Dylan Stewart. Both neutral-site games were with Dylan Stewart. All 4 top-10 opponents were with Dylan Stewart.
Dylan Stewart, defender: 19 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Dylan Stewart
−1.2
without Dylan Stewart
+7.4
-20020
A −8.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Dylan Stewart vs without Dylan Stewart is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.4
28.0
050
A −26.6 difference in points of margin with Dylan Stewart vs without Dylan Stewart is unusual: shuffle which games were with Dylan Stewart and it comes up once in 100.
The games
with Dylan Stewartwithout Dylan Stewart
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 21 | 4.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Missouri | W | 4 | 11.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Wofford | W | 44 | — | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Clemson | W | 3 | 1.3 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Illinois (neutral) | L | -4 | 11.5 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech (neutral) | W | 13 | 8.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSouth Carolina State | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsVanderbilt | L | -24 | -5.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @Missouri | L | -9 | -6.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 22 | 3.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ LSU | L | -10 | -2.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | -19 | -4.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | -7 | -8.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | -16 | -14.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | -1 | -16.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 44 | 22.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsClemson | L | -14 | 5.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 57 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsTTowson | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | L | -7 | 13.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Alabama | L | -31 | -6.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsKentucky | L | -1 | 6.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Florida | W | 19 | -8.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Tennessee | W | 3 | 2.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Oklahoma | W | 17 | 0.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wofford, South Carolina State, Towson have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 10 of these 25 games; in the other 15 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.