Putting Up Numbers· college football

South Carolina’s points allowed with Dylan Stewart and without Dylan Stewart

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Carolina was 1.5 points over with Dylan Stewart and 2.6 points under without Dylan Stewart in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 31.6 and 14.7, a difference of 16.9. All 3 away games were with Dylan Stewart. Both nonconference games were without Dylan Stewart.

Dylan Stewart, defender: 5 games this season.

3 games without Dylan Stewart is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

points allowed a game over expected

A +4.1 difference in points allowed over expected with Dylan Stewart vs without Dylan Stewart is about what you’d expect.

A +16.9 difference in points allowed with Dylan Stewart vs without Dylan Stewart is about what you’d expect.

The games

with Dylan Stewartwithout Dylan Stewart
South Carolina’s games, 2026, each marked with Dylan Stewart or without Dylan Stewart
SideDateGameResultpoints allowedExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsKent StateW012.7
Sep 12, 2026vsTTowsonW9—
Sep 19, 2026vsMississippi StateL4124.9
Sep 26, 2026@AlabamaL4934.6
Oct 3, 2026vsKentuckyL3527.4
Oct 10, 2026@FloridaW1938.7
Oct 24, 2026vsTennesseeW2427.1
Oct 31, 2026@OklahomaW2524.9

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
  • Towson has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.