South Carolina’s carries with Matt Fuller and without Matt Fuller
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, South Carolina was 0.5 carries over with Matt Fuller and 1.0 carries under without Matt Fuller over its last 25 games, 16 games against 6. The plain averages are 36.1 and 36.9, a difference of 0.7. Expected was 1.1 carries lower with Matt Fuller than without Matt Fuller. Both neutral-site games were without Matt Fuller. All 4 top-10 opponents were with Matt Fuller. All 3 games after a bye were with Matt Fuller.
Matt Fuller, running back: 790 rushing yards, 166 carries and 24 receptions in 18 of those 25 games, 26% of South Carolina’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +1.5 difference in carries over expected with Matt Fuller vs without Matt Fuller is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Matt Fuller and it comes up 15 times in 100.
A −0.7 difference in carries with Matt Fuller vs without Matt Fuller is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 41 | 37.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Missouri | W | 35 | 36.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Wofford | W | 46 | — | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Clemson | W | 41 | 37.6 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Illinois (neutral) | L | 33 | 40.0 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech (neutral) | W | 34 | 35.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSouth Carolina State | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsVanderbilt | L | 28 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @Missouri | L | 22 | 34.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Kentucky | W | 48 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ LSU | L | 45 | 31.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 34 | 33.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | 37 | 32.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 32 | 35.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 33 | 31.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 39 | 39.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsClemson | L | 19 | 34.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Kent State | W | 38 | 39.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsTTowson | W | 41 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | L | 39 | 37.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Alabama | L | 40 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsKentucky | L | 37 | 35.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Florida | W | 35 | 37.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Tennessee | W | 31 | 39.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Oklahoma | W | 44 | 34.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wofford, South Carolina State, Towson have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 10 of these 25 games; in the other 15 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.