Putting Up Numbers· college football

SMU’s total yards with Yannick Smith and without Yannick Smith

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, SMU was 13.8 yards over with Yannick Smith and 101.7 yards over without Yannick Smith in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 450.1 and 593.0, a difference of 142.9. All 3 away games were with Yannick Smith. All 6 day games were with Yannick Smith. All 6 conference games were with Yannick Smith.

Yannick Smith, receiver: 437 receiving yards, 27 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.

One game without Yannick Smith is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Yannick Smithwithout Yannick Smith
SMU’s games, 2026, each marked with Yannick Smith or without Yannick Smith
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Sep 7, 2026@Florida StateW585417.6
Sep 12, 2026vsUUC-DavisW547—
Sep 19, 2026@LouisvilleL479420.5
Sep 26, 2026vsMissouri StateW593491.3
Oct 3, 2026vsBoston CollegeW221442.9
Oct 17, 2026vsVirginiaW406402.8
Oct 24, 2026vsCaliforniaW492438.6
Oct 31, 2026@SyracuseL421398.8

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • UC-Davis has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.