SMU’s third-down conversion rate with Yannick Smith and without Yannick Smith
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, SMU was 0.3 percentage points under with Yannick Smith and 22.6 percentage points over without Yannick Smith in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 41.7% and 66.7%, a difference of 25.0%. All 3 away games were with Yannick Smith. All 6 day games were with Yannick Smith. All 6 conference games were with Yannick Smith.
Yannick Smith, receiver: 437 receiving yards, 27 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Yannick Smith is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Yannick Smith
−0.3%
without Yannick Smith
+22.6%
-20%0%20%
plain
41.7%
66.7%
40%60%
The games
with Yannick Smithwithout Yannick Smith
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2026 | @ Florida State | W | 57.1% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Louisville | L | 35.7% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 66.7% | 44.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 50.0% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Virginia | W | 30.8% | 42.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs California | W | 22.2% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Syracuse | L | 46.2% | 41.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- UC-Davis has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.