SMU’s third-down conversion rate with Dramekco Green and without Dramekco Green
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, SMU was 3.2 percentage points over with Dramekco Green and 0.3 percentage points over without Dramekco Green over its last 25 games, 9 games against 10. The plain averages are 44.7% and 40.4%, a difference of 4.3%.
Dramekco Green, running back: 201 rushing yards, 61 carries and 8 receptions in 9 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Dramekco Green
+3.2%
without Dramekco Green
+0.3%
-20%0%20%
A +2.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Dramekco Green vs without Dramekco Green is about what you’d expect.
plain
44.7%
40.4%
40%60%
A +4.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Dramekco Green vs without Dramekco Green is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Dramekco Greenwithout Dramekco Green
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Virginia | W | 57.1% | 39.4% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs California | W | 30.0% | 38.6% | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Clemson (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 38.7% | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | 21.4% | 40.2% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsEEast Texas A&M | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Baylor | L | 38.5% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Missouri State | W | 46.7% | 43.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ TCU | L | 30.8% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 41.7% | 42.1% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 27.3% | 42.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Clemson | W | 41.2% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | L | 23.5% | 40.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | W | 23.1% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 57.1% | 42.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Louisville | W | 69.2% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @California | L | 63.6% | 41.2% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Arizona (neutral) | W | 30.0% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | @ Florida State | W | 57.1% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Louisville | L | 35.7% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMissouri State | W | 66.7% | 44.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsBoston College | W | 50.0% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsVirginia | W | 30.8% | 42.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsCalifornia | W | 22.2% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Syracuse | L | 46.2% | 41.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- East Texas A&M, UC-Davis have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Dramekco Green nor without Dramekco Green: Dramekco Green had no game for the team that season, and sit out.