SMU’s third-down conversion rate with Dramekco Green and since Dramekco Green’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, SMU was 12.8 percentage points over with Dramekco Green and 10.1 percentage points under since Dramekco Green’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 51.9% and 33.0%, a difference of 18.9%. Both night games were with Dramekco Green. Both nonconference games were with Dramekco Green. All 4 first-half games were with Dramekco Green.
Dramekco Green, running back: 111 rushing yards, 36 carries and 6 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games since Dramekco Green’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +22.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Dramekco Green vs since Dramekco Green’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Dramekco Green and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A +18.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Dramekco Green vs since Dramekco Green’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Dramekco Green and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2026 | @ Florida State | W | 57.1% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Louisville | L | 35.7% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 66.7% | 44.1% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 50.0% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Virginia | W | 30.8% | 42.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs California | W | 22.2% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Syracuse | L | 46.2% | 41.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- UC-Davis has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.