SMU’s points of margin with Yannick Smith and without Yannick Smith
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, SMU was 5.1 points over with Yannick Smith and 19.2 points under without Yannick Smith over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 13.4 and 10.0, a difference of 3.4. Expected was 26.3 points lower with Yannick Smith than without Yannick Smith. All 3 away games were with Yannick Smith. All 6 day games were with Yannick Smith. All 6 conference games were with Yannick Smith.
Yannick Smith, receiver: 437 receiving yards, 27 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Yannick Smith is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Yannick Smith
+5.1
without Yannick Smith
−19.2
020
plain
13.4
10.0
02040
The games
with Yannick Smithwithout Yannick Smith
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Virginia | W | 26 | 10.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs California | W | 32 | 12.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Clemson (neutral) | L | -3 | 1.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | -28 | -5.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsEEast Texas A&M | W | 29 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Baylor | L | -3 | 15.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Missouri State | W | 18 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ TCU | L | -11 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 13 | 27.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 24 | 16.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Clemson | W | 11 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | L | -1 | 6.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | W | 6 | -11.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 32 | 13.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Louisville | W | 32 | 0.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @California | L | -3 | 15.0 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Arizona (neutral) | W | 5 | -0.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | @ Florida State | W | 3 | -6.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 46 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Louisville | L | -10 | -9.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMissouri State | W | 10 | 29.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsBoston College | W | 9 | 12.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsVirginia | W | 10 | 7.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsCalifornia | W | 39 | 10.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Syracuse | L | -3 | 2.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- UC-Davis has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Yannick Smith nor without Yannick Smith: Yannick Smith had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.