SMU’s carries with Dramekco Green and without Dramekco Green
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, SMU was 0.4 carries under with Dramekco Green and 1.0 carries under without Dramekco Green over its last 25 games, 9 games against 10. The plain averages are 33.2 and 30.8, a difference of 2.4. Expected was 3.0 carries higher with Dramekco Green than without Dramekco Green.
Dramekco Green, running back: 201 rushing yards, 61 carries and 8 receptions in 9 of those 25 games, 20% of SMU’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Dramekco Green
−0.4
without Dramekco Green
−1.0
-505
A +0.6 difference in carries over expected with Dramekco Green vs without Dramekco Green is about what you’d expect.
plain
33.2
30.8
3040
A +2.4 difference in carries with Dramekco Green vs without Dramekco Green is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Dramekco Greenwithout Dramekco Green
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Virginia | W | 35 | 35.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs California | W | 30 | 35.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Clemson (neutral) | L | 35 | 34.0 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | 36 | 35.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsEEast Texas A&M | W | 33 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Baylor | L | 44 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Missouri State | W | 34 | 30.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ TCU | L | 27 | 31.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 27 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 23 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Clemson | W | 28 | 28.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | L | 28 | 32.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | W | 24 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 30 | 33.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Louisville | W | 36 | 29.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @California | L | 31 | 32.3 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Arizona (neutral) | W | 31 | 34.5 | |
| Sep 7, 2026 | @ Florida State | W | 31 | 35.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Louisville | L | 45 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMissouri State | W | 39 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsBoston College | W | 30 | 38.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsVirginia | W | 31 | 35.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsCalifornia | W | 44 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Syracuse | L | 31 | 31.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- East Texas A&M, UC-Davis have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Dramekco Green nor without Dramekco Green: Dramekco Green had no game for the team that season, and sit out.