SMU’s carries with Dramekco Green and since Dramekco Green’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, SMU was 0.6 carries under with Dramekco Green and 1.4 carries over since Dramekco Green’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 33.8 and 35.3, a difference of 1.5. Expected was 3.0 carries higher with Dramekco Green than since Dramekco Green’s last game. Both night games were with Dramekco Green. Both nonconference games were with Dramekco Green. All 4 first-half games were with Dramekco Green.
Dramekco Green, running back: 111 rushing yards, 36 carries and 6 receptions in 5 games this season, 21% of SMU’s carries in those games.
3 games since Dramekco Green’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −2.0 difference in carries over expected with Dramekco Green vs since Dramekco Green’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −1.5 difference in carries with Dramekco Green vs since Dramekco Green’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2026 | @ Florida State | W | 31 | 35.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsUUC-Davis | W | 24 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Louisville | L | 45 | 35.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 39 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Boston College | W | 30 | 38.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Virginia | W | 31 | 35.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs California | W | 44 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Syracuse | L | 31 | 31.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- UC-Davis has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.