San Jose State’s third-down conversion rate with Tama Amisone and without Tama Amisone
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Jose State was 3.9 percentage points over with Tama Amisone and 1.3 percentage points under without Tama Amisone over its last 25 games, 1 game against 18. The plain averages are 40.0% and 38.6%, a difference of 1.4%. Expected was 2.8 percentage points lower with Tama Amisone than without Tama Amisone. All 10 home games were without Tama Amisone. All 10 day games were without Tama Amisone. Both ranked opponents were without Tama Amisone.
Tama Amisone, quarterback: 205 passing yards, 51 pass attempts and 26 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
One game with Tama Amisone is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Tama Amisone
+3.9%
without Tama Amisone
−1.3%
-20%0%20%
plain
40.0%
38.6%
20%40%60%
The games
with Tama Amisonewithout Tama Amisone
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Boise State | L | 53.8% | 37.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | vs UNLV | L | 25.0% | 37.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 54.5% | 42.0% | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | vs South Florida (neutral) | L | 31.6% | 40.1% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | L | 50.0% | 47.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 26.7% | 35.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Idaho | W | 70.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Stanford | L | 33.3% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 66.7% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Wyoming | L | 31.6% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 52.9% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 50.0% | 40.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Air Force | L | 45.5% | 47.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Nevada | L | 30.8% | 42.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 40.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | 25.0% | 41.8% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ USC | L | 45.5% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 31.3% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCal Poly | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsFresno State | L | 35.3% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 26.7% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsWyoming | L | 33.3% | 37.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 46.2% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Nevada | L | 7.1% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 38.5% | 36.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Idaho, Cal Poly have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 21 games; in the other 6 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Tama Amisone nor without Tama Amisone: Tama Amisone had no game for the team that season, and sit out.