San Jose State’s third-down conversion rate with Luke Weaver and without Luke Weaver
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Jose State was 1.8 percentage points under with Luke Weaver and 9.8 percentage points under without Luke Weaver over its last 25 games, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 33.6% and 26.6%, a difference of 7.0%. All 4 home games were with Luke Weaver. All 4 nonconference games were with Luke Weaver.
Luke Weaver, quarterback: 1,810 passing yards, 242 pass attempts and 154 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
2 games without Luke Weaver is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +8.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Luke Weaver vs without Luke Weaver is about what you’d expect.
A +7.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Luke Weaver vs without Luke Weaver is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Boise State | L | 53.8% | 37.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | vs UNLV | L | 25.0% | 37.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 54.5% | 42.0% | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | vs South Florida (neutral) | L | 31.6% | 40.1% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | L | 50.0% | 47.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 26.7% | 35.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Idaho | W | 70.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Stanford | L | 33.3% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 66.7% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Wyoming | L | 31.6% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 52.9% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 50.0% | 40.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Air Force | L | 45.5% | 47.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Nevada | L | 30.8% | 42.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 40.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | 25.0% | 41.8% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ USC | L | 45.5% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 31.3% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCal Poly | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsFresno State | L | 35.3% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 26.7% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsWyoming | L | 33.3% | 37.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 46.2% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Nevada | L | 7.1% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 38.5% | 36.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Cal Poly has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Luke Weaver nor without Luke Weaver: Luke Weaver had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.