San Jose State’s third-down conversion rate with Jabari Bates and without Jabari Bates
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Jose State was 2.8 percentage points under with Jabari Bates and 3.1 percentage points over without Jabari Bates over its last 25 games, 14 games against 9. The plain averages are 36.7% and 43.2%, a difference of 6.5%. All 4 ranked opponents were with Jabari Bates. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jabari Bates. All 10 nonconference games were with Jabari Bates.
Jabari Bates, running back: 841 rushing yards, 189 carries and 10 receptions in 16 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −5.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jabari Bates vs without Jabari Bates is about what you’d expect.
A −6.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jabari Bates vs without Jabari Bates is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Boise State | L | 53.8% | 37.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | vs UNLV | L | 25.0% | 37.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 54.5% | 42.0% | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | vs South Florida (neutral) | L | 31.6% | 40.1% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | L | 50.0% | 47.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 26.7% | 35.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Idaho | W | 70.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Stanford | L | 33.3% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 66.7% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Wyoming | L | 31.6% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 52.9% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 50.0% | 40.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Air Force | L | 45.5% | 47.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Nevada | L | 30.8% | 42.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 40.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | 25.0% | 41.8% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ USC | L | 45.5% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 31.3% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCal Poly | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsFresno State | L | 35.3% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 26.7% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsWyoming | L | 33.3% | 37.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 46.2% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Nevada | L | 7.1% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 38.5% | 36.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Idaho, Cal Poly have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 25 games; in the other 10 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.