San Jose State’s third-down conversion rate with Jabari Bates and without Jabari Bates
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Jose State was 5.3 percentage points under with Jabari Bates and 6.7 percentage points over without Jabari Bates in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 30.3% and 46.2%, a difference of 15.8%. All 4 home games were with Jabari Bates. All 4 day games were with Jabari Bates. All 4 nonconference games were with Jabari Bates.
Jabari Bates, running back: 649 rushing yards, 153 carries and 9 receptions in 8 games this season.
One game without Jabari Bates is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jabari Bates
−5.3%
without Jabari Bates
+6.7%
-20%-10%0%10%
plain
30.3%
46.2%
10%20%30%40%
The games
with Jabari Bateswithout Jabari Bates
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ USC | L | 45.5% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 31.3% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCal Poly | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Fresno State | L | 35.3% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Hawaii | W | 26.7% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Wyoming | L | 33.3% | 37.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 46.2% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Nevada | L | 7.1% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | 38.5% | 36.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Cal Poly has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.