San Jose State’s rushing yards with Jabari Bates and without Jabari Bates
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Jose State was 36.8 yards under with Jabari Bates and 100.7 yards over without Jabari Bates in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 106.6 and 233.0, a difference of 126.4. All 4 home games were with Jabari Bates. All 4 day games were with Jabari Bates. All 4 nonconference games were with Jabari Bates.
Jabari Bates, running back: 649 rushing yards, 153 carries and 9 receptions in 8 games this season, 76% of San Jose State’s rushing yards in those games.
One game without Jabari Bates is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
with Jabari Bates
−36.8
without Jabari Bates
+100.7
-50050100
plain
106.6
233.0
100200
The games
with Jabari Bateswithout Jabari Bates
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ USC | L | 102 | 99.8 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 139 | 110.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCal Poly | W | 255 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Fresno State | L | 91 | 135.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Hawaii | W | 78 | 144.8 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Wyoming | L | 75 | 154.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 233 | 132.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Nevada | L | 65 | 101.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | 48 | 109.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- Cal Poly has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.