San Jose State’s points of margin with Luke Weaver and without Luke Weaver
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Jose State was 0.6 points over with Luke Weaver and 5.6 points under without Luke Weaver over its last 25 games, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are -2.9 and -1.0, a difference of 1.9. Expected was 10.2 points lower with Luke Weaver than without Luke Weaver. All 4 home games were with Luke Weaver. All 4 nonconference games were with Luke Weaver.
Luke Weaver, quarterback: 1,810 passing yards, 242 pass attempts and 154 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
2 games without Luke Weaver is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +6.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Luke Weaver vs without Luke Weaver is about what you’d expect.
A −1.9 difference in points of margin with Luke Weaver vs without Luke Weaver is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Boise State | L | -21 | -11.9 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | vs UNLV | L | -11 | -11.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 3 | 0.9 | |
| Dec 24, 2024 | vs South Florida (neutral) | L | -2 | -1.3 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | L | -2 | 0.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Texas | L | -31 | -30.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Idaho | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Stanford | L | -1 | -15.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 7 | -14.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Wyoming | L | -7 | -5.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | -5 | -16.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Hawaii | W | 7 | -11.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Air Force | L | -10 | -3.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Nevada | L | -45 | 3.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | -22 | -19.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | -27 | -4.9 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ USC | L | -16 | -22.9 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 6 | 2.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCal Poly | W | 10 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsFresno State | L | -16 | -3.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Hawaii | W | 4 | -1.2 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsWyoming | L | -3 | 6.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 13 | 13.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Nevada | L | -15 | -4.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | -5 | -14.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Cal Poly has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Luke Weaver nor without Luke Weaver: Luke Weaver had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.