San Jose State’s points of margin with Jabari Bates and without Jabari Bates
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Jose State was 1.1 points under with Jabari Bates and 0.1 points under without Jabari Bates in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are -4.4 and 13.0, a difference of 17.4. Expected was 18.5 points lower with Jabari Bates than without Jabari Bates. All 4 home games were with Jabari Bates. All 4 day games were with Jabari Bates. All 4 nonconference games were with Jabari Bates.
Jabari Bates, running back: 649 rushing yards, 153 carries and 9 receptions in 8 games this season.
One game without Jabari Bates is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jabari Bates
−1.1
without Jabari Bates
−0.1
-10010
plain
-4.4
13.0
-10010
The games
with Jabari Bateswithout Jabari Bates
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ USC | L | -16 | -23.1 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 6 | 5.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCal Poly | W | 10 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Fresno State | L | -16 | -3.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Hawaii | W | 4 | -1.7 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Wyoming | L | -3 | 5.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 13 | 13.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Nevada | L | -15 | -4.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | -5 | -15.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Cal Poly has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.