San Jose State’s carries with Luke Weaver and without Luke Weaver
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Jose State was 1.7 carries under with Luke Weaver and 0.3 carries under without Luke Weaver in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 33.0 and 32.5, a difference of 0.5. All 4 home games were with Luke Weaver. All 4 nonconference games were with Luke Weaver. All 4 first-half games were with Luke Weaver.
Luke Weaver, quarterback: 1,810 passing yards, 242 pass attempts and 154 completions in 8 games this season, 24% of San Jose State’s carries in those games.
2 games without Luke Weaver is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −1.4 difference in carries over expected with Luke Weaver vs without Luke Weaver is about what you’d expect.
A +0.5 difference in carries with Luke Weaver vs without Luke Weaver is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ USC | L | 24 | 33.2 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 34 | 30.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCal Poly | W | 44 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Fresno State | L | 32 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Hawaii | W | 34 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Wyoming | L | 28 | 35.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 35 | 33.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Nevada | L | 30 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | 35 | 30.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Cal Poly has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.