San Jose State’s carries with Jabari Bates and without Jabari Bates
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Jose State was 1.8 carries under with Jabari Bates and 1.4 carries over without Jabari Bates in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.6 and 35.0, a difference of 2.4. All 4 home games were with Jabari Bates. All 4 day games were with Jabari Bates. All 4 nonconference games were with Jabari Bates.
Jabari Bates, running back: 649 rushing yards, 153 carries and 9 receptions in 8 games this season, 59% of San Jose State’s carries in those games.
One game without Jabari Bates is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Jabari Bates
−1.8
without Jabari Bates
+1.4
-50
plain
32.6
35.0
25303540
The games
with Jabari Bateswithout Jabari Bates
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ USC | L | 24 | 33.2 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 34 | 30.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsCCal Poly | W | 44 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Fresno State | L | 32 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Hawaii | W | 34 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Wyoming | L | 28 | 35.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 35 | 33.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Nevada | L | 30 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | 35 | 30.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Cal Poly has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.