San Diego State’s third-down conversion rate with Jayden Denegal and without Jayden Denegal
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 7.3 percentage points under with Jayden Denegal and 8.0 percentage points over without Jayden Denegal over its last 25 games, 16 games against 4. The plain averages are 29.5% and 44.6%, a difference of 15.1%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jayden Denegal. Both games after a bye were with Jayden Denegal.
Jayden Denegal, quarterback: 2,703 passing yards, 393 pass attempts and 225 completions in 19 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −15.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jayden Denegal vs without Jayden Denegal is about what you’d expect.
A −15.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jayden Denegal vs without Jayden Denegal is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | 25.0% | 33.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Utah State | L | 37.5% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | 57.1% | 35.2% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSStony Brook | W | 47.4% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 15.4% | 31.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs California | W | 27.3% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 33.3% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 63.6% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 30.0% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Fresno State | W | 36.4% | 31.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 16.7% | 32.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 14.3% | 35.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 25.0% | 29.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 35.7% | 31.5% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 30.8% | 31.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs North Texas (neutral) | L | 28.6% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 16.7% | 30.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 41.2% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 21.4% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 10.0% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 15.4% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFresno State | W | 42.9% | 35.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Colorado State | L | 61.5% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 45.5% | 35.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stony Brook, Portland State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 22 games; in the other 7 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Jayden Denegal nor without Jayden Denegal: Jayden Denegal had no game for the team that season, and sit out.