San Diego State’s third-down conversion rate with Jayden Denegal and since Jayden Denegal’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 15.3 percentage points under with Jayden Denegal and 13.7 percentage points over since Jayden Denegal’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 25.8% and 50.0%, a difference of 24.2%. All 4 nonconference games were with Jayden Denegal. All 4 first-half games were with Jayden Denegal.
Jayden Denegal, quarterback: 896 passing yards, 150 pass attempts and 82 completions in 7 games this season.
3 games since Jayden Denegal’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −28.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jayden Denegal vs since Jayden Denegal’s last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Jayden Denegal and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A −24.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jayden Denegal vs since Jayden Denegal’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jayden Denegal and it comes up 9 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 16.7% | 30.3% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 41.2% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 21.4% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 10.0% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 15.4% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 42.9% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Colorado State | L | 61.5% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 45.5% | 35.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 9 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.