San Diego State’s third-down conversion rate with Javion Kinnard and without Javion Kinnard
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 0.9 percentage points under with Javion Kinnard and 29.0 percentage points under without Javion Kinnard over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.8% and 10.0%, a difference of 26.8%. All 4 away games were with Javion Kinnard. All 5 day games were with Javion Kinnard. All 4 nonconference games were with Javion Kinnard.
Javion Kinnard, running back: 613 rushing yards, 108 carries and 11 receptions in 8 of those 25 games.
One game without Javion Kinnard is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Javion Kinnard
−0.9%
without Javion Kinnard
−29.0%
-20%0%20%
plain
36.8%
10.0%
20%40%60%
The games
with Javion Kinnardwithout Javion Kinnard
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | 25.0% | 33.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Utah State | L | 37.5% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | 57.1% | 35.2% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSStony Brook | W | 47.4% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 15.4% | 31.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs California | W | 27.3% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 33.3% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 63.6% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 30.0% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Fresno State | W | 36.4% | 31.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 16.7% | 32.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 14.3% | 35.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 25.0% | 29.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 35.7% | 31.5% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 30.8% | 31.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs North Texas (neutral) | L | 28.6% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 16.7% | 30.3% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 41.2% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 21.4% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 10.0% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 15.4% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFresno State | W | 42.9% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Colorado State | L | 61.5% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 45.5% | 35.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 9 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Javion Kinnard nor without Javion Kinnard: Javion Kinnard had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.