San Diego State’s third-down conversion rate with Christian Washington and since Christian Washington’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 4.1 percentage points under with Christian Washington and 4.4 percentage points under since Christian Washington’s last game over its last 25 games, 12 games against 8. The plain averages are 32.5% and 31.8%, a difference of 0.6%. Expected was 2.4 percentage points lower with Christian Washington than since Christian Washington’s last game. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Christian Washington. Both games after a bye were with Christian Washington.
Christian Washington, running back: 575 rushing yards, 100 carries and 7 receptions in 14 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +0.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Christian Washington vs since Christian Washington’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +0.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Christian Washington vs since Christian Washington’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | 25.0% | 33.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Utah State | L | 37.5% | 41.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | 57.1% | 35.2% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSStony Brook | W | 47.4% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 15.4% | 31.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs California | W | 27.3% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 33.3% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 63.6% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 30.0% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Fresno State | W | 36.4% | 31.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 16.7% | 32.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 14.3% | 35.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 25.0% | 29.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 35.7% | 31.5% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 30.8% | 31.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs North Texas (neutral) | L | 28.6% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 16.7% | 30.3% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 41.2% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 21.4% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 10.0% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 15.4% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFresno State | W | 42.9% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Colorado State | L | 61.5% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 45.5% | 35.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Stony Brook, Portland State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 22 games; in the other 7 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Christian Washington nor since Christian Washington’s last game: Christian Washington had no game for the team that season, and sit out.