San Diego State’s points of margin with Jayden Denegal and since Jayden Denegal’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 7.5 points under with Jayden Denegal and 5.0 points over since Jayden Denegal’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are -12.2 and 0.7, a difference of 12.8. All 4 nonconference games were with Jayden Denegal. All 4 first-half games were with Jayden Denegal.
Jayden Denegal, quarterback: 896 passing yards, 150 pass attempts and 82 completions in 7 games this season.
3 games since Jayden Denegal’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −12.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Jayden Denegal vs since Jayden Denegal’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −12.8 difference in points of margin with Jayden Denegal vs since Jayden Denegal’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 33 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | -18 | -32.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | -13 | -9.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | -25 | -3.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 2 | -11.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | -52 | -11.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 3 | -11.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Colorado State | L | -7 | -1.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 6 | -0.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 9 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.