San Diego State’s points of margin with Javion Kinnard and without Javion Kinnard
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 5.1 points under with Javion Kinnard and 13.7 points over without Javion Kinnard over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are -9.1 and 2.0, a difference of 11.1. All 4 away games were with Javion Kinnard. All 5 day games were with Javion Kinnard. All 4 nonconference games were with Javion Kinnard.
Javion Kinnard, running back: 613 rushing yards, 108 carries and 11 receptions in 8 of those 25 games.
One game without Javion Kinnard is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Javion Kinnard
−5.1
without Javion Kinnard
+13.7
-40-200
plain
-9.1
2.0
-500
The games
with Javion Kinnardwithout Javion Kinnard
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | -21 | -26.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Utah State | L | -21 | -5.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | -11 | -1.8 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSStony Brook | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | -23 | -0.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs California | W | 34 | 4.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 3 | 17.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 21 | 17.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 34 | 9.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Fresno State | W | 23 | 0.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 17 | 16.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | -32 | 8.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 10 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 22 | 19.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | -6 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs North Texas (neutral) | L | -2 | -7.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 33 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | -18 | -32.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | -13 | -9.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | -25 | -3.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 2 | -11.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | -52 | -11.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFresno State | W | 3 | -11.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Colorado State | L | -7 | -1.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 6 | -0.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 9 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Javion Kinnard nor without Javion Kinnard: Javion Kinnard had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.