San Diego State’s points of margin with Dalesean Staley and since Dalesean Staley’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 0.4 points under with Dalesean Staley and 2.8 points under since Dalesean Staley’s last game over its last 25 games, 15 games against 8. The plain averages are 5.6 and -7.9, a difference of 13.5. Expected was 13.8 points higher with Dalesean Staley than since Dalesean Staley’s last game. Both games after a bye were with Dalesean Staley.
Dalesean Staley, defender: 16 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A +2.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Dalesean Staley vs since Dalesean Staley’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +13.5 difference in points of margin with Dalesean Staley vs since Dalesean Staley’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Dalesean Staley and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | -21 | -26.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Utah State | L | -21 | -5.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | -11 | -1.8 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSStony Brook | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | -23 | -0.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs California | W | 34 | 4.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 3 | 17.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 21 | 17.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 34 | 9.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Fresno State | W | 23 | 0.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 17 | 16.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | -32 | 8.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 10 | 1.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 22 | 19.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | -6 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs North Texas (neutral) | L | -2 | -7.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 33 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | -18 | -32.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | -13 | -9.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | -25 | -3.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 2 | -11.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | -52 | -11.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFresno State | W | 3 | -11.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Colorado State | L | -7 | -1.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 6 | -0.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Stony Brook, Portland State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 25 games; in the other 10 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.