San Diego State’s carries with Jordan Napier and without Jordan Napier
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 0.1 carries under with Jordan Napier and 4.0 carries over without Jordan Napier over its last 25 games, 19 games against 4. The plain averages are 37.8 and 41.8, a difference of 4.0. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jordan Napier. Both games after a bye were with Jordan Napier.
Jordan Napier, receiver: 839 receiving yards, 74 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 20 of those 25 games, 2% of San Diego State’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Jordan Napier
−0.1
without Jordan Napier
+4.0
-10010
A −4.1 difference in carries over expected with Jordan Napier vs without Jordan Napier is about what you’d expect.
plain
37.8
41.8
304050
A −4.0 difference in carries with Jordan Napier vs without Jordan Napier is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jordan Napierwithout Jordan Napier
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | 35 | 34.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Utah State | L | 38 | 38.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | 35 | 32.7 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsSStony Brook | W | 54 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Washington State | L | 30 | 34.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs California | W | 33 | 40.3 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 43 | 42.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 47 | 41.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 41 | 38.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Fresno State | W | 44 | 36.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 37 | 39.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 34 | 37.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Boise State | W | 43 | 35.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 41 | 40.7 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 42 | 36.0 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs North Texas (neutral) | L | 46 | 42.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 38 | 31.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 44 | 32.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 31 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 29 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 21 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFresno State | W | 39 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Colorado State | L | 37 | 36.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 36 | 34.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stony Brook, Portland State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 25 games; in the other 10 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.