San Diego State’s carries with Jordan Napier and without Jordan Napier
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 1.3 carries under with Jordan Napier and 6.5 carries over without Jordan Napier in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 34.9 and 38.0, a difference of 3.1. Expected was 3.7 carries higher with Jordan Napier than without Jordan Napier. All 5 home games were with Jordan Napier. All 4 night games were with Jordan Napier. All 5 conference games were with Jordan Napier.
Jordan Napier, receiver: 181 receiving yards, 17 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season, 1% of San Diego State’s carries in those games.
One game without Jordan Napier is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Jordan Napier
−1.3
without Jordan Napier
+6.5
-10010
plain
34.9
38.0
3040
The games
with Jordan Napierwithout Jordan Napier
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 38 | 31.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 44 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 31 | 37.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 29 | 33.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 21 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 39 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Colorado State | L | 37 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 36 | 34.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 9 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.