San Diego State’s carries with Javion Kinnard and without Javion Kinnard
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 0.3 carries over with Javion Kinnard and 4.7 carries under without Javion Kinnard in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.0 and 29.0, a difference of 7.0. All 4 away games were with Javion Kinnard. All 5 day games were with Javion Kinnard. All 4 nonconference games were with Javion Kinnard.
Javion Kinnard, running back: 613 rushing yards, 108 carries and 11 receptions in 8 games this season, 38% of San Diego State’s carries in those games.
One game without Javion Kinnard is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Javion Kinnard
+0.3
without Javion Kinnard
−4.7
-10010
plain
36.0
29.0
3040
The games
with Javion Kinnardwithout Javion Kinnard
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 38 | 31.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 44 | 32.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 31 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 29 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 21 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 39 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Colorado State | L | 37 | 36.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 36 | 34.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 9 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.