San Diego State’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, San Diego State was 0.1 points under at home and 1.9 points under away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 29.8 and 22.3, a difference of 7.6. All 4 night games were at home.
San Diego State’s +1.8 at home vs away over expected ranks 7th of the 12 teams with 4 games on each side this season.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.1
away
−1.9
-10010
A +1.8 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
29.8
22.3
2040
A +7.6 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 53 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 10 | 12.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 13 | 25.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Toledo | L | 16 | 29.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 31 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Oregon State | L | 14 | 22.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Fresno State | W | 26 | 20.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Colorado State | L | 49 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Washington State | W | 26 | 24.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.