Sam Houston’s third-down conversion rate with MJ Dowdy and without MJ Dowdy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Sam Houston was 6.6 percentage points under with MJ Dowdy and 0.7 percentage points under without MJ Dowdy over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 34.4% and 34.9%, a difference of 0.4%. Expected was 0.6 percentage points higher with MJ Dowdy than without MJ Dowdy. All 4 conference games were with MJ Dowdy.
MJ Dowdy, running back: 147 rushing yards, 40 carries and 2 receptions in 5 of those 25 games.
2 games without MJ Dowdy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −5.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with MJ Dowdy vs without MJ Dowdy is about what you’d expect.
A −0.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with MJ Dowdy vs without MJ Dowdy is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 33.3% | 37.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 47.1% | 38.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 43.8% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Liberty | W | 31.3% | 39.7% | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs Georgia Southern (neutral) | W | 33.3% | 42.8% | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 14.3% | 31.0% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs UNLV (neutral) | L | 8.3% | 27.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 18.2% | 31.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 14.3% | 24.7% | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | L | 23.1% | 32.5% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsJacksonville State (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 30.2% | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs UTEP (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 24.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @Louisiana Tech | L | 26.7% | 30.1% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 23.1% | 23.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Delaware (neutral) | W | 26.7% | 33.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 15.4% | 32.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | 25.0% | 31.9% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Troy | L | 42.9% | 34.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 38.5% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNicholls | W | 58.8% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 31.3% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @Liberty | L | 30.8% | 30.8% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | L | 15.4% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vsNew Mexico State | L | 23.1% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ Missouri State | L | 35.7% | 39.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Nicholls has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with MJ Dowdy nor without MJ Dowdy: MJ Dowdy had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.