Sam Houston’s third-down conversion rate with Landyn Locke and without Landyn Locke
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Sam Houston was 6.2 percentage points under with Landyn Locke and 7.0 percentage points under without Landyn Locke over its last 25 games, 10 games against 9. The plain averages are 30.1% and 23.0%, a difference of 7.0%. All 4 home games were with Landyn Locke.
Landyn Locke, quarterback: 2,418 passing yards, 377 pass attempts and 218 completions in 13 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Landyn Locke
−6.2%
without Landyn Locke
−7.0%
-20%-10%0%
A +0.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Landyn Locke vs without Landyn Locke is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Landyn Locke and it comes up 16 times in 100.
plain
30.1%
23.0%
20%40%
A +7.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Landyn Locke vs without Landyn Locke is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Landyn Lockewithout Landyn Locke
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 33.3% | 37.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 47.1% | 38.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 43.8% | 39.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Liberty | W | 31.3% | 39.7% | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs Georgia Southern (neutral) | W | 33.3% | 42.8% | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 14.3% | 31.0% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs UNLV (neutral) | L | 8.3% | 27.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 18.2% | 31.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 14.3% | 24.7% | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | L | 23.1% | 32.5% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsJacksonville State (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 30.2% | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs UTEP (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 24.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @Louisiana Tech | L | 26.7% | 30.1% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 23.1% | 23.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Delaware (neutral) | W | 26.7% | 33.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 15.4% | 32.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | 25.0% | 31.9% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Troy | L | 42.9% | 34.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 38.5% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNicholls | W | 58.8% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 31.3% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @Liberty | L | 30.8% | 30.8% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | L | 15.4% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vsNew Mexico State | L | 23.1% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ Missouri State | L | 35.7% | 39.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Nicholls has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Landyn Locke nor without Landyn Locke: Landyn Locke had no game for the team that season, and sit out.