Sam Houston’s third-down conversion rate with Landyn Locke and since Landyn Locke’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Sam Houston was 5.1 percentage points under with Landyn Locke and 3.7 percentage points under since Landyn Locke’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 34.4% and 35.7%, a difference of 1.3%. Expected was 4.0 percentage points lower with Landyn Locke than since Landyn Locke’s last game. All 4 home games were with Landyn Locke. All 4 night games were with Landyn Locke. All 4 nonconference games were with Landyn Locke.
Landyn Locke, quarterback: 1,653 passing yards, 236 pass attempts and 147 completions in 7 games this season.
One game since Landyn Locke’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Landyn Locke
−5.1%
since Landyn Locke’s last game
−3.7%
-20%-10%0%
plain
34.4%
35.7%
20%40%
The games
with Landyn Lockesince Landyn Locke’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Troy | L | 42.9% | 34.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 38.5% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNicholls | W | 58.8% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 31.3% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 30.8% | 30.8% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 15.4% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs New Mexico State | L | 23.1% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ Missouri State | L | 35.7% | 39.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Nicholls has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.