Sam Houston’s points of margin with MJ Dowdy and without MJ Dowdy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Sam Houston was 6.5 points under with MJ Dowdy and 4.4 points over without MJ Dowdy in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are -2.7 and -20.5, a difference of 17.8. All 4 conference games were with MJ Dowdy. All 4 second-half games were with MJ Dowdy.
MJ Dowdy, running back: 147 rushing yards, 40 carries and 2 receptions in 5 games this season.
2 games without MJ Dowdy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with MJ Dowdy
−6.5
without MJ Dowdy
+4.4
-20-10010
A −10.9 difference in points of margin over expected with MJ Dowdy vs without MJ Dowdy is about what you’d expect.
plain
-2.7
-20.5
050
A +17.8 difference in points of margin with MJ Dowdy vs without MJ Dowdy is about what you’d expect.
The games
with MJ Dowdywithout MJ Dowdy
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Troy | L | -3 | -17.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | -6 | -15.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNicholls | W | 59 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | -35 | -34.2 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | -32 | -31.3 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | L | -13 | 5.7 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vs New Mexico State | L | -6 | 0.5 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ Missouri State | L | -21 | 0.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Nicholls has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.