Sam Houston’s carries with MJ Dowdy and without MJ Dowdy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Sam Houston was 4.8 carries under with MJ Dowdy and 0.3 carries under without MJ Dowdy over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 27.3 and 29.0, a difference of 1.7. All 4 conference games were with MJ Dowdy.
MJ Dowdy, running back: 147 rushing yards, 40 carries and 2 receptions in 5 of those 25 games, 29% of Sam Houston’s carries in those games.
2 games without MJ Dowdy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with MJ Dowdy
−4.8
without MJ Dowdy
−0.3
-10-50
A −4.5 difference in carries over expected with MJ Dowdy vs without MJ Dowdy is about what you’d expect.
plain
27.3
29.0
203040
A −1.7 difference in carries with MJ Dowdy vs without MJ Dowdy is about what you’d expect.
The games
with MJ Dowdywithout MJ Dowdy
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 29 | 40.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Kennesaw State | W | 43 | 40.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 39 | 43.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Liberty | W | 42 | 40.3 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs Georgia Southern (neutral) | W | 31 | 37.9 | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 31 | 33.9 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs UNLV (neutral) | L | 35 | 29.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 32 | 29.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 26 | 30.1 | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | L | 26 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vsJacksonville State (neutral) | L | 33 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | vs UTEP (neutral) | L | 40 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @Louisiana Tech | L | 33 | 29.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 23 | 30.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Delaware (neutral) | W | 28 | 31.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 24 | 32.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | 38 | 31.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Troy | L | 24 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 31 | 34.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsNNicholls | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Texas Tech | L | 27 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @Liberty | L | 29 | 25.7 | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | L | 27 | 29.6 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | vsNew Mexico State | L | 19 | 32.7 | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | @ Missouri State | L | 25 | 31.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Nicholls has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with MJ Dowdy nor without MJ Dowdy: MJ Dowdy had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.