Rutgers’ total yards with AJ Surace and without AJ Surace
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rutgers was 37.7 yards under with AJ Surace and 32.3 yards over without AJ Surace in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 307.8 and 450.0, a difference of 142.3.
AJ Surace, quarterback: 662 passing yards, 83 pass attempts and 43 completions in 6 games this season.
total yards a game over expected
with AJ Surace
−37.7
without AJ Surace
+32.3
0100
A −70.0 difference in total yards over expected with AJ Surace vs without AJ Surace is about what you’d expect.
plain
307.8
450.0
300400500
A −142.3 difference in total yards with AJ Surace vs without AJ Surace is about what you’d expect.
The games
with AJ Suracewithout AJ Surace
| Side | Date | Game | Result | total yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UMass | L | 349 | 446.7 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | 384 | 324.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs USC | L | 465 | 362.3 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsHHoward | W | 539 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 254 | 320.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 447 | 355.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 344 | 392.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Michigan | L | 249 | 343.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Howard has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.