Rutgers’ third-down conversion rate with Ja'shon Benjamin and without Ja'shon Benjamin
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rutgers was 0.9 percentage points under with Ja'shon Benjamin and 15.0 percentage points over without Ja'shon Benjamin over its last 25 games, 20 games against 3. The plain averages are 41.3% and 54.8%, a difference of 13.5%. All 3 top-10 opponents were with Ja'shon Benjamin. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Ja'shon Benjamin. All 7 nonconference games were with Ja'shon Benjamin.
Ja'shon Benjamin, running back: 440 rushing yards, 90 carries and 7 receptions in 15 of those 25 games.
3 games without Ja'shon Benjamin is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −15.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Ja'shon Benjamin vs without Ja'shon Benjamin is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Ja'shon Benjamin and it comes up 16 times in 100.
A −13.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Ja'shon Benjamin vs without Ja'shon Benjamin is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Minnesota | W | 28.6% | 42.2% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Maryland | W | 42.9% | 41.3% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Illinois | L | 57.1% | 44.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Michigan State | W | 53.8% | 41.5% | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Kansas State (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 37.9% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 10.0% | 45.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 70.0% | 47.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 64.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | vs Iowa | L | 46.2% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Minnesota | L | 50.0% | 41.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | @ Washington | L | 33.3% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | 27.8% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 28.6% | 41.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Illinois | L | 37.5% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsMaryland | W | 66.7% | 42.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | 35.7% | 32.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Penn State | L | 50.0% | 40.3% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UMass | L | 27.3% | 46.1% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | 33.3% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs USC | L | 54.5% | 37.2% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsHHoward | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 14.3% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 64.3% | 33.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 37.5% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Michigan | L | 30.0% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Norfolk State, Howard have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.