Rutgers’ third-down conversion rate with AJ Surace and without AJ Surace
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rutgers was 9.4 percentage points under with AJ Surace and 2.9 percentage points over without AJ Surace over its last 25 games, 4 games against 14. The plain averages are 28.8% and 45.3%, a difference of 16.5%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without AJ Surace. All 3 games after a bye were without AJ Surace.
AJ Surace, quarterback: 720 passing yards, 92 pass attempts and 47 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −12.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with AJ Surace vs without AJ Surace is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with AJ Surace and it comes up 9 times in 100.
A −16.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with AJ Surace vs without AJ Surace is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with AJ Surace and it comes up 10 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Minnesota | W | 28.6% | 42.2% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Maryland | W | 42.9% | 41.3% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Illinois | L | 57.1% | 44.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Michigan State | W | 53.8% | 41.5% | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Kansas State (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 37.9% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 10.0% | 45.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 70.0% | 47.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 64.3% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | vs Iowa | L | 46.2% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Minnesota | L | 50.0% | 41.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | @ Washington | L | 33.3% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | 27.8% | 38.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 28.6% | 41.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Illinois | L | 37.5% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsMaryland | W | 66.7% | 42.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | 35.7% | 32.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Penn State | L | 50.0% | 40.3% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UMass | L | 27.3% | 46.1% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | 33.3% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs USC | L | 54.5% | 37.2% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsHHoward | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 14.3% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 64.3% | 33.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 37.5% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Michigan | L | 30.0% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Norfolk State, Howard have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with AJ Surace nor without AJ Surace: AJ Surace had no game for the team that season, and sit out.