Rutgers’ third-down conversion rate with AJ Surace and without AJ Surace
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rutgers was 9.4 percentage points under with AJ Surace and 9.7 percentage points over without AJ Surace in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 28.8% and 51.1%, a difference of 22.3%.
AJ Surace, quarterback: 662 passing yards, 83 pass attempts and 43 completions in 6 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with AJ Surace
−9.4%
without AJ Surace
+9.7%
-20%0%20%
A −19.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with AJ Surace vs without AJ Surace is about what you’d expect.
plain
28.8%
51.1%
20%40%60%
A −22.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with AJ Surace vs without AJ Surace is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with AJ Surace and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
with AJ Suracewithout AJ Surace
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UMass | L | 27.3% | 46.1% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | 33.3% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs USC | L | 54.5% | 37.2% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsHHoward | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 14.3% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 64.3% | 33.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 37.5% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Michigan | L | 30.0% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Howard has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.