Rutgers’ points with AJ Surace and without AJ Surace
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rutgers was 3.9 points under with AJ Surace and 0.5 points over without AJ Surace over its last 25 games, 4 games against 14. The plain averages are 17.8 and 30.9, a difference of 13.2. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without AJ Surace. All 3 games after a bye were without AJ Surace.
AJ Surace, quarterback: 720 passing yards, 92 pass attempts and 47 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
with AJ Surace
−3.9
without AJ Surace
+0.5
-10010
A −4.4 difference in points over expected with AJ Surace vs without AJ Surace is about what you’d expect.
plain
17.8
30.9
204060
A −13.2 difference in points with AJ Surace vs without AJ Surace is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with AJ Surace and it comes up 20 times in 100.
The games
with AJ Suracewithout AJ Surace
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Minnesota | W | 26 | 23.2 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Maryland | W | 31 | 30.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Illinois | L | 31 | 28.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Michigan State | W | 41 | 25.9 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Kansas State (neutral) | L | 41 | 24.6 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 34 | 32.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 45 | 33.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | vs Iowa | L | 28 | 19.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Minnesota | L | 28 | 27.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | @ Washington | L | 19 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | 10 | 23.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 27 | 30.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Illinois | L | 13 | 26.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsMaryland | W | 35 | 30.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | 9 | 13.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Penn State | L | 36 | 23.8 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UMass | L | 21 | 35.4 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | 21 | 25.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs USC | L | 35 | 23.4 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsHHoward | W | 58 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 15 | 16.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 37 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 14 | 22.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Michigan | L | 21 | 22.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Norfolk State, Howard have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with AJ Surace nor without AJ Surace: AJ Surace had no game for the team that season, and sit out.