Rutgers’ points of margin with Dylan Lonergan and without Dylan Lonergan
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rutgers was 5.6 points under with Dylan Lonergan and 0.2 points over without Dylan Lonergan over its last 25 games, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 0.6 and -14.0, a difference of 14.6.
Dylan Lonergan, quarterback: 1,066 passing yards, 127 pass attempts and 74 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
3 games without Dylan Lonergan is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Dylan Lonergan
−5.6
without Dylan Lonergan
+0.2
-200
A −5.9 difference in points of margin over expected with Dylan Lonergan vs without Dylan Lonergan is about what you’d expect.
plain
0.6
-14.0
050
A +14.6 difference in points of margin with Dylan Lonergan vs without Dylan Lonergan is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Dylan Lonerganwithout Dylan Lonergan
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Minnesota | W | 7 | -5.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Maryland | W | 14 | 0.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Illinois | L | -7 | 1.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Michigan State | W | 27 | 1.9 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Kansas State (neutral) | L | -3 | -5.9 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Ohio | W | 3 | 9.6 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 28 | 9.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 50 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | vs Iowa | L | -10 | -14.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Minnesota | L | -3 | -1.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | @ Washington | L | -19 | -16.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | -46 | -17.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Purdue | W | 3 | 0.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Illinois | L | -22 | -10.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsMaryland | W | 15 | 3.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | -33 | -27.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Penn State | L | -4 | -11.3 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UMass | L | -16 | 20.6 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | -7 | -7.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs USC | L | -7 | -18.6 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsHHoward | W | 51 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | -32 | -18.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Maryland | W | 7 | -8.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | -28 | -24.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Michigan | L | -7 | -10.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Howard has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Dylan Lonergan nor without Dylan Lonergan: Dylan Lonergan had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.