Rutgers’ passing yards with Dylan Lonergan and without Dylan Lonergan
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rutgers was 55.5 yards over with Dylan Lonergan and 74.8 yards under without Dylan Lonergan in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 273.0 and 151.0, a difference of 122.0.
Dylan Lonergan, quarterback: 1,066 passing yards, 127 pass attempts and 74 completions in 6 games this season, 73% of Rutgers’s passing yards in those games.
3 games without Dylan Lonergan is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A +130.3 difference in passing yards over expected with Dylan Lonergan vs without Dylan Lonergan is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Dylan Lonergan and it comes up 11 times in 100.
A +122.0 difference in passing yards with Dylan Lonergan vs without Dylan Lonergan is unusual: shuffle which games were with Dylan Lonergan and it comes up 4 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UMass | L | 319 | 218.2 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | 230 | 186.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs USC | L | 292 | 225.2 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsHHoward | W | 268 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 195 | 218.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 291 | 212.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 100 | 267.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Michigan | L | 123 | 223.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Howard has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.