Rutgers’ pass attempts with AJ Surace and without AJ Surace
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rutgers was 9.0 pass attempts under with AJ Surace and 9.9 pass attempts over without AJ Surace in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 21.5 and 33.8, a difference of 12.3.
AJ Surace, quarterback: 662 passing yards, 83 pass attempts and 43 completions in 6 games this season, 56% of Rutgers’s pass attempts in those games.
pass attempts a game over expected
with AJ Surace
−9.0
without AJ Surace
+9.9
-10010
A −18.9 difference in pass attempts over expected with AJ Surace vs without AJ Surace is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with AJ Surace and it comes up 6 times in 100.
plain
21.5
33.8
2030
A −12.3 difference in pass attempts with AJ Surace vs without AJ Surace is about what you’d expect.
The games
with AJ Suracewithout AJ Surace
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vs UMass | L | 38 | 26.8 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | 27 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs USC | L | 37 | 26.2 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vsHHoward | W | 25 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 20 | 31.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Maryland | W | 35 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 27 | 33.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Michigan | L | 12 | 30.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Howard has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.