Putting Up Numbers· college football

Rice’s total yards with Jacurri Brown and since Jacurri Brown’s last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rice was 56.6 yards under with Jacurri Brown and 244.0 yards over since Jacurri Brown’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 320.4 and 608.0, a difference of 287.6. All 4 home games were with Jacurri Brown. All 4 night games were with Jacurri Brown. All 4 nonconference games were with Jacurri Brown.

Jacurri Brown, quarterback: 478 passing yards, 83 pass attempts and 40 completions in 7 games this season.

One game since Jacurri Brown’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.

total yards a game over expected

The games

with Jacurri Brownsince Jacurri Brown’s last game
Rice’s games, 2026, each marked with Jacurri Brown or since Jacurri Brown’s last game
SideDateGameResulttotal yardsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsHHouston ChristianW502—
Sep 12, 2026@Notre DameL132251.1
Sep 19, 2026vsWestern MichiganL330372.9
Sep 26, 2026@Fresno StateL463332.7
Oct 3, 2026vsUTSAL232396.6
Oct 10, 2026@East CarolinaL233354.6
Oct 17, 2026vsTulsaL351372.7
Oct 24, 2026@Florida AtlanticL608364.0

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
  • Houston Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
  • With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.