Rice’s third-down conversion rate with Quinton Jackson and since Quinton Jackson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rice was 1.5 percentage points under with Quinton Jackson and 8.5 percentage points under since Quinton Jackson’s last game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 7. The plain averages are 37.3% and 25.0%, a difference of 12.3%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Quinton Jackson. All 3 games after a bye were with Quinton Jackson. All 4 of Pete Alamar’s games were with Quinton Jackson.
Quinton Jackson, running back: 1,082 rushing yards, 206 carries and 13 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +7.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Quinton Jackson vs since Quinton Jackson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +12.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Quinton Jackson vs since Quinton Jackson’s last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Quinton Jackson and it comes up 4 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Navy | W | 50.0% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ Memphis | L | 37.5% | 38.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ UAB | L | 37.5% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs South Florida | W | 33.3% | 37.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Louisiana | W | 41.7% | 37.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 26.7% | 34.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Prairie View A&M | W | 42.9% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 41.7% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Navy | L | 26.7% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 62.5% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 33.3% | 30.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UConn | W | 33.3% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vsMemphis | L | 18.8% | 36.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsUAB | W | 29.4% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | 42.9% | 37.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @South Florida | L | 30.8% | 34.4% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Texas State (neutral) | L | 17.6% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 64.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 16.7% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 10.0% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Fresno State | L | 36.4% | 30.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 15.4% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ East Carolina | L | 20.0% | 30.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 36.4% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 40.0% | 34.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Prairie View A&M, Houston Christian have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.