Rice’s third-down conversion rate with Jacurri Brown and since Jacurri Brown’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rice was 10.8 percentage points under with Jacurri Brown and 5.2 percentage points over since Jacurri Brown’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 28.5% and 40.0%, a difference of 11.5%. All 4 home games were with Jacurri Brown. All 4 night games were with Jacurri Brown. All 4 nonconference games were with Jacurri Brown.
Jacurri Brown, quarterback: 478 passing yards, 83 pass attempts and 40 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game since Jacurri Brown’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jacurri Brown
−10.8%
since Jacurri Brown’s last game
+5.2%
-20%-10%0%
plain
28.5%
40.0%
20%40%60%
The games
with Jacurri Brownsince Jacurri Brown’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Navy | W | 50.0% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ Memphis | L | 37.5% | 38.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ UAB | L | 37.5% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs South Florida | W | 33.3% | 37.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Louisiana | W | 41.7% | 37.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 26.7% | 34.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Prairie View A&M | W | 42.9% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 41.7% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Navy | L | 26.7% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 62.5% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 33.3% | 30.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UConn | W | 33.3% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vsMemphis | L | 18.8% | 36.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsUAB | W | 29.4% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | 42.9% | 37.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @South Florida | L | 30.8% | 34.4% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Texas State (neutral) | L | 17.6% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 64.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 16.7% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 10.0% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Fresno State | L | 36.4% | 30.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 15.4% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ East Carolina | L | 20.0% | 30.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 36.4% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 40.0% | 34.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Houston Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jacurri Brown nor since Jacurri Brown’s last game: Jacurri Brown had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.