Rice’s third-down conversion rate with Gael Ochoa and without Gael Ochoa
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rice was 5.2 percentage points over with Gael Ochoa and 10.8 percentage points under without Gael Ochoa in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 40.0% and 28.5%, a difference of 11.5%. All 4 home games were without Gael Ochoa. All 4 night games were without Gael Ochoa. All 4 nonconference games were without Gael Ochoa.
Gael Ochoa, quarterback: 160 passing yards, 16 pass attempts and 8 completions in 4 games this season.
One game with Gael Ochoa is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Gael Ochoa
+5.2%
without Gael Ochoa
−10.8%
-20%-10%0%
plain
40.0%
28.5%
20%40%60%
The games
with Gael Ochoawithout Gael Ochoa
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 64.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 16.7% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 10.0% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Fresno State | L | 36.4% | 30.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs UTSA | L | 15.4% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ East Carolina | L | 20.0% | 30.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 36.4% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Florida Atlantic | L | 40.0% | 34.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Houston Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.